Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
