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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a conference hindered from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.